Gujarat,Assembly Eelction, 2022,


Recently, I wrote my post on the Loksabha election 2024 where I made some predictions. Today, I am going to write about the Gujarat Assembly election 2022. The time has again come for a new election battle in the state of Gujarat and this time, these are the Gujarat Assembly elections 2022. Gujarat is a very important state for Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) because it is in power in this state for the last 27 years and this state has always supported BJP in the Loksabha election. Five years back, I wrote a similar post 'Interesting Battle of Gujarat Assembly 2017'. At that time, the challenges for BJP were different from those today and Congress was aggressively trying to steal Gujarat from BJP with the help of new and young leaders Hardik Patel, Aplesh Thakor and Jignesh. Today, things have quite changed and Congress is not as aggressive as it was in 2017 because of its own internal fight. Congress has also become weak after the death of its famous and strong leader Ahmed Patel who have strong control of the Gujarat Congress. 

Hardik Patel was a member of the congress party in the 2017 election and was fighting against BJP. He has now joined the BJP leaving congress further weak. So we may say that Congress is not in a full position to give a good fight to BJP in Gujarat. Overall so many years, BJP has created a loyal set of voters who are strongly standing behind it. In the 2017 Gujarat assembly election, the Aam Admi party (AAP) was not a big name but after the recent success in the Punjab assembly election, AAP is in an up mood and it is aggressively campaigning in Gujarat. AAP has promised many schemes and free incentives as per the Delhi model to the voters of Gujarat so that they may vote in the favour of AAP. The performance of AAP in the 2017 Gujarat assembly election was very bad and it got only 0.1% votes. 

It will be better to see whether AAP can make an impressive performance this year or not. If we consider the strong base of the BJP in Gujarat then it will a very hard battle for AAP to make an inroad into Gujarat. In the 2017 assembly election, BJP won 99 seats and it bagged 49.1% of the votes.  Congress was second with 41.4% votes but today, we all know the condition of congress. Considering all these factors, it looks like an edge for the BJP because the same government of BJP in the centre is an advantage for Gujarat and its growth. Already, BJP has announced many schemes and investments for the Growth of Gujarat and India's first bullet train is also running through it. The biggest advantage of the BJP in Gujarat is the absence of any big party or alliance in the opposition. 

In the 2017 Assembly election, Congress was very aggressive and it has a group of good young and elder leaders so it succeeded in stopping BJP from below 100 seats in Gujarat. BJP's telly of the 2017 assembly election was 16 seats done from the 2012 Gujarat assembly election. This time congress does not look so aggressive and many of its leaders have gone so BJP has an upper hand. How the people of Gujarat will trust the AAP, is also a debatable issue but I don't see any miracles so early. The exit/opinion polls available so far from Cvoter, Times Now etc have predicted 100 plus seats for BJP. 

In the end, I can see that BJP looks to have an upper hand in Gujarat and it can again form nest government in Gujarat.